September 29, 2007

"Collapse" is the name of a Jared Diamond book. It is subtitled, "How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed." For those of in Mets nation it should be subtitled "How TEAMS Choose to Fail or Succeed." Last night, when I heard that it finally had happened, the Mets loss combined with the Phillies win puts the Mets 1 game back pf the Phils in the NL East, I thought I was going to be sick. I literally took two Tums and lied down hoping to fall asleep so the feeling would pass. I know it seemed possible since September was one of their worst months going 13-13 (so far) and losing the last 5 in a row. August didn't prove to be much better with a record of 15-13 making the Mets barely an average team for the last two months. What is worse, is the Yankees who most non-Yankee fans ruled out of any possible post season play early this season was in contention to win the AL East, but at least wrapped up the AL Wildcard earlier this week. It is a disaster for Mets fans. I am just glad I do not live in New York and have to hear it from Yankee fans non-stop. Let's take a look at this more closely.

1) The Mets' collapse is not as sudden as it seemed. They got out of the gate hot and have been mediocre ever since. 34-18 through the first two months and then only one month over .500 since, and that was only by 1 game. 53-55 over four months, hardly a surprise that they are fighting for their playoff life in this last weekend of the regular season. But, honestly, does a team that is below .500 for the last four months of the season really need to be going to the post-season? How exciting will that be to watch them get trounced in the first round?

2) The Phillies have played very well since their "poor start." Poor start? They had a bad April, that's it. They keep getting hotter and if any team deserves to make the post-season it is the Phillies. They are an exciting team to watch and they are peaking. That makes for some exciting games. Their 77-58 record since April shows that they are a team to be reckoned with, while the Mets have been swept by the Phillies in the last SEVEN games they met.

3) The Milwaukee Brewers are already on the outside looking in. The Cubs have clinched the NL Central and the Brewers are don't even have a record to contend for the Wild Card. So their hot start was for naught. Again, just as the Mets, two good months are not good enough to cover for the four poor months. And what it was that Lou Pinella said to his team got them fired up enough to play to their potential and now they have a chance to break the curse.

4) Back in April, newspapers and critic everywhere were certain that Joe Torre would be done as the Yankees' manager at the end of this season (if not sooner) and now they are the Wildcard team for the AL, and until a few days ago, were contending for the top spot in the AL East. For the last four months, the Yankees have been playing fantastic baseball (although it actually makes me gag to admit it). Their bats have been on fire and their pitching has been good enough, most nights, to allow the Yankees' 10 run leads to hold. But it is really the Yankees who deserve the most credit for turning the ship around. The Red Sox record will prove this.

5) The Red Sox was another team that started off the season hot. But unlike the Mets, they didn't self destruct. They continued to post winning records month after month (except for June's 13-14 record). They were in it for the entire season despite the talking heads' discussion of their collapse. The Red Sox continued to win, though looking more human than early on, but it was the Yankees inspired play that put the Red Sox lead in jeopardy. As usual, having the Yankees and Red Sox in the post-season makes for an exciting series, assuming both teams can get through the first round.

As for me, I was delighted (of course) to see the Mets win and the Phillies lose today, putting them in a deadlock going into the last day of the season. Both teams will need the other to lose in order to avoid a head-to-head playoff game on Monday. Which could also occur if both teams lose. I am also watching with interest the Padres and the Brewers today hoping for a Padres loss. This is where it starts to get a little complicated. It is possible that all three teams (Mets, Phillies, and Padres) will end up with the same record making two play-off games necessary. The Mets and Phillies will have to play each other to see who wins the NL East, then the loser of that game will have to play the Padres to see who wins the Wildcard. That scenario would happen if both the Mets and Phillies win their games an the Padres lose theirs. But, if either the Mets or Phillies lose their game, the Padres clinch the Wildcard and the winner of Sunday's game, or if both lose, the winner of the play-off game between the Mets and Phillies wins the NL East. Ugh. That is the way it stands and at least I feel some hope for my Mets, unlike Friday night when all I felt was nauseous.